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Fiye da 2,000 shekaru da suka wuce, tsohon masanin teku na Girka Divistock ya taɓa cewa: “Duk wanda ya mallaki teku yana sarrafa komai.” Tarihi ya ci gaba da tabbatar da wannan jumla. Spain, tare da rundunarta da ba za ta iya cin nasara ba, Netherlands, kocin teku, Biritaniya, wanda ya kasance a kololuwar sa, da Amurka, mai ikon duniya, sun kasance masu sha'awar bin tsarin mulkin maritime ba tare da togiya ba. Ya isa ganin cewa ruwan tekun duniya yana da matukar muhimmanci a cikin zukatan mutane.
Yawancin fa'idodi, kamar ƙarancin farashi, m ɗaukar hoto, da babban iya aiki, mai da jigilar teku a matsayin babban jijiya na kasuwancin duniya. Alkaluma sun nuna cewa a harkokin kasuwancin kasa da kasa, farashin sufuri a kowace kilometa na ton ɗaya na kaya shine 26 sau na hanyoyi da 95 sau na teku ta iska.
Bugu da kari, a cewar rahoton UNCTAD a 2019, daga mahangar nauyin kaya, cinikin teku ya yi lissafi 90% na jimlar cinikin duniya; dangane da darajar kayayyaki, ya yi lissafin fiye da 70% na yawan ciniki.
Duk da haka, A lokacin annobar, an yanke wannan jijiya ta kasuwanci ta duniya, jigilar kaya yayi tashin gwauron zabi, kuma yana da wuya a sami tankunan jiragen ruwa da na jiragen ruwa. Kwanan nan, guguwar farashin jigilar kayayyaki a duniya ya karu kuma karancin kwantena ya kara dagulewa. Yaya daidai wannan? abu?
1. Fashe-fashe akai-akai na sassan, karancin wuraren kwantena a China da Amurka
Dauki hanyar jigilar kayayyaki tsakanin China da Amurka a matsayin misali. A halin yanzu, sararin samaniya daga kasar Sin zuwa gabar tekun yammacin Amurka yana da tsauri musamman. A tsakiyar watan Agusta, Caixin ya nakalto rahoto daga wani mai jigilar kayayyaki da ke aiki da U.S. layi: “Na shagaltu da jigilar U.S. hanyoyin kwantena na watan da ya gabata, kuma kusan dukkan jiragen ruwa sun fashe daga sararin samaniya. Yanzu za mu iya yin ajiyar sarari kawai makonni uku bayan haka. Masu jigilar kaya da suke son jigilar kaya suna matukar farin cikin yin tayin.” Haka kuma, ko da bayan booking a gaba, ba a yanke hukuncin cewa sararin kwantena na jirgin yana da tsauri kuma yana kasancewa “sauke”.
Dauki hanyar Yammacin Amurka a matsayin misali. A cikin watanni biyar da suka gabata, kudin dakon kaya ya karu kusan kowane wata. A watan Maris, Matsakaicin farashin kaya na FEU na hanyar Yammacin Amurka ya kusan dalar Amurka 1,500. Ya tashi zuwa dalar Amurka 1700 a karshen watan Afrilu, kuma ya tashi zuwa dalar Amurka 2000 a watan Mayu. Ya karya dalar Amurka 2,700 a tsakiyar wata, ya haura dalar Amurka 3,000 a karshen watan Yuli, har ma ya karu zuwa dalar Amurka 3,400 a watan Agusta, yana nuna karuwa da yawa idan aka kwatanta da na lokaci guda na bara.
Me ya sa ake samun irin wannan karancin kwantena a China da Amurka kwanan nan?
Na farko, Annobar kasashen waje tana da tsanani, Har yanzu ba a dage dakatarwar da aka yi wa masana'antar jigilar kayayyaki ta duniya ba, sannan akwai karancin karfin jigilar kayayyaki da kayan aikin kwantena.
Tun bayan bullar annobar, Bukatar sufurin kaya a duniya ya ragu matuka saboda manyan matakan toshewar da kasashen duniya ke yi. A saboda wannan dalili, Kamfanonin jigilar kayayyaki na kasar Sin da na kasashen waje sun dakatar da hanyoyin zirga-zirga, ya rage yawan tafiye-tafiyen kwantena zuwa ketare, kuma an tarwatsa manyan jiragen ruwa marasa aiki. Misali, a halin yanzu 11 na duniya 12 Manyan kamfanonin jigilar kaya sun rage karfinsu kuma sun rage yawan jiragensu; akwai kuma kanana da matsakaitan kamfanonin jigilar kayayyaki da yawa da ba za su iya jurewa matsin tattalin arziki sakamakon dakatar da jigilar kayayyaki na dogon lokaci ba kuma tuni sun rufe..
Bisa ga sabon binciken da hukumar nazarin jiragen ruwa ta Sea-Intelligence ta gudanar, saboda tasirin sabuwar annobar kambi, Jirgin ruwan kwantena na duniya ya ragu ta hanyar 6.8% a farkon rabin wannan shekara. Ko da a ce kasar Sin ta dawo da aiki da kuma samarwa gaba daya, kuma kasashen Turai da Amurka sun sake fara ayyukan tattalin arziki, wannan annoba ta yi mummunar illa ga kamfanonin jigilar kaya, kuma zai ɗauki lokaci don dawo da yanayin sufuri na yau da kullun a baya.
Na biyu, bisa la'akari da tsammanin da ba a so game da alkiblar manufofin Amurka, yawancin abokan cinikin Amurka sun bukaci masu jigilar kayayyaki na kasar Sin da su hanzarta samar da kayayyaki da kuma hanzarta kai kayayyaki. Wannan tsattsauran ɗabi'a na yin wuce gona da iri na jigilar kayayyaki a nan gaba ya kuma sa ƙarancin kwantena a China da Amurka ya ƙara fitowa fili.. A cikin “kore da rawaya” matakin kasuwancin kwantena na tashar jiragen ruwa, kuma a ƙarƙashin rinjayar damuwa da damuwa game da ciniki na gaba, Farashin jigilar kayayyaki na hanyoyin kasar Sin da Amurka ya yi ta karuwa akai-akai.
2. Haushi mai ban mamaki, Farashin jigilar kayayyaki na duniya ya kai matsayi mai girma
Ƙididdigar Kwantenan Fitar da Fitar da kayayyaki ta Shanghai (SCFI) ya nuna cewa farashin dakon kaya mai tsawon kafa 40 a halin yanzu daga Shanghai zuwa gabar tekun yammacin Amurka da tashar jiragen ruwa ta Gabas ya zarce dalar Amurka 3,100 da dalar Amurka 3,500.. A cikin watanni uku da suka gabata, Farashin jigilar kayayyaki na hanyoyin jigilar kayayyaki tsakanin Sin da Amurka ya karu da kusan 90%. Amma a zahiri, kallon duniya, wannan ƙananan ƙananan farashin jigilar kayayyaki ne na duniya. Tun watan Yuni, Farashin jigilar kaya akan hanyoyin ƙasa da ƙasa daga Maersk zuwa Jirgin ruwa na Bahar Rum, daga Asiya zuwa Turai zuwa Arewacin Amurka duk sun fara tashi. Ko da yake akwai abubuwa da yawa da ke shafar farashin jigilar kayayyaki, ana cewa “key dalilai” da gaske yana shafar farashin jigilar kaya Akwai biyu masu zuwa:
Na farko, Kamfanin jigilar kayayyaki ya yi asara mai yawa a farkon matakin, kuma ramin yayi girma sosai, don haka za a biya shi daga baya.
A farkon wannan shekara, tare da saurin yaduwar cutar, Kasuwar jigilar kayayyaki ta duniya ta zama mara kyau, Farashin jigilar kwantena ya ragu, kuma farashin kaya ya faɗi ƙasa a ƙarshen Afrilu. Ko da mafi tsanani shi ne cewa a watan Mayu, Kasuwancin tekun duniya ya fadi da fiye da haka 10%, wanda ke nufin akwai fiye da haka 1 biliyan ton na kasuwanci “hasara” a duniya, digo mafi girma a ciki 35 shekaru.
Wani sabon bincike da hukumar binciken jiragen ruwa ta Sea-Intelligence ta gudanar ya nuna cewa idan yawan jigilar kwantena ya ragu ta hanyar. 10%, jigilar kwantena na iya yin asara 23.4 dalar Amurka biliyan a ciki 2020. Wannan yanayin mafi munin yanayi yana da illa ga masana'antar jigilar kaya, saboda 12 Manyan kamfanonin sufurin jiragen ruwa a duniya sun sami ribar aiki na dalar Amurka biliyan 20.9 a cikin shekaru takwas daga 2012 ku 2019. A wasu kalmomin, sabuwar annobar kambi ta haɗiye Masana'antar jigilar kwantena ta sami dukkan nasarori a cikin shekaru goma da suka gabata.
Haka kuma, Bayan ɓarkewar cuta, Matakan toshewar dai sun janyo kusan rugujewar tashoshin jiragen ruwa a Indiya, Amurka, Philippines, Bangladesh, da Italiya. A Afrilu 1, 44,926 an jibge kwantena a farfajiyar dakon kaya na Chittagong a Bangladesh; Karachi, babban tashar jiragen ruwa na Pakistan, yana da fiye da 6000 ana sauke kwantena a tashar jiragen ruwa kowace rana, kuma ba a iya kwashe kaya da yawa. Kuɗin ajiyar kuɗi da kuma kashe kuɗi da aka yi a lokacin kuma adadin kuɗi ne Manyan kashe kuɗi. A duk irin wannan yanayi, kamar yadda bukata ta karu a hankali, babu wani daga cikin kamfanonin jigilar kayayyaki da suka tsira da ke shirye su ci gaba da yin asarar kuɗi, kuma farashin jigilar kayayyaki ya yi tashin gwauron zabi.
Na biyu, kafin zuwan kaka, yawanci shine lokacin kololuwar masana'antar jigilar kayayyaki ta duniya.
Idan ba ku yi la'akari da wasu dalilai ba, kallon lokaci kawai, Hakanan farashin jigilar kayayyaki zai karu daga Yuli zuwa Satumba na shekarar da ta gabata, kuma zamanin bayan annoba ne har yanzu ke lullube da hazo. Bayan 'yan kwanaki da suka gabata, Babban kamfanin jigilar kayayyaki na duniya CMA CGM ya sanar da cewa zai kara kudin FAK mai kafa 40 daga dalar Amurka 100 zuwa dalar Amurka 2,300 daga ranar 1 ga Agusta., kuma ya gabatar da ƙarin ƙarin kuɗin dalar Amurka $200/TEU a cikin watan Yuli.
Alphaline, hukumar kula da harkokin sufuri, ya nuna cewa tun watan Yuni 22, Fiye da 120 Jiragen kwantena marasa aiki sun sake farawa. Tun daga watan Yuli 6, Akwai 375 jiragen ruwan kwantena marasa aiki a duniya, wanda yayi daidai da 1.85 miliyan TEUs. Wannan ya yi ƙasa da na 453 tasoshin na 2.32 miliyan TEU ya ruwaito makonni biyu da suka gabata. Haka lokacin kololuwar masana'antar jigilar kayayyaki ke zuwa da gaske?
3. Shin lokacin kololuwar masana'antar jigilar kayayyaki ta zo da gaske?
Wanda aka sani da barometer na kasuwar jigilar kayayyaki ta duniya, Baltic Dry Bulk Index ya tashi 1.1% Juma'ar da ta gabata, rana ta 13 a jere na samun riba, a da 1,595 maki, wani sabon high tun Yuli 20. Amma wannan ba yana nufin cewa kasuwar jigilar kaya ta kasance ba “daga cikin hadari” kuma kamfanonin sufuri za su iya “kasa lafiya”.
Domin jigilar kayayyaki sana'a ce ta yau da kullun, yana da alaka da ci gaban tattalin arzikin duniya. A fannin tattalin arziki, ga kowane kashi na ci gaban tattalin arzikin duniya, Adadin jigilar kayayyaki na duniya zai tashi ta 1.6%. Abin takaici, tattalin arzikin duniya ya shiga a “yanayin rikicin”. Rahoton Bankin Duniya ya yi hasashen cewa tattalin arzikin duniya zai yi kasa a gwiwa 5.2% a 2020, wanda yake “koma bayan tattalin arziki mafi muni tun bayan yakin duniya na biyu” da tattalin arziƙin da ya sami raguwar fitar da kowane mutum tun daga lokacin 1870. Shekarar da mafi girma lamba.
A saboda wannan dalili, kasashe da dama sun yi amfani da manufofin kudi da na kasafin kudi don gyara tattalin arzikinsu, amma wannan hanya ta farfado da tattalin arzikin duniya tana da burin zama cikas da tsayin daka. Babban abin da ke faruwa shine cutar ta Amurka tana gab da fita daga sarrafawa, da kuma yadda kasar ke fama da cutar. Ya zama babban haɗari ga ci gaba da farfadowar tattalin arzikin duniya. Bugu da kari, Kasashen Turai suna cike da sabani. Don cimma matsayin rigakafin annoba na ƙasata a halin yanzu, zai ɗauki lokaci mai tsawo don cikakken sake dawowa aiki da samarwa.
Saboda, rashin tabbas na farfadowar tattalin arzikin duniya ya sa kasuwannin jigilar kayayyaki har yanzu suna cikin yawo.
A karkashin wannan hali, ya zama da wahala sosai ga hukumomin nazarin masana'antar jigilar kayayyaki don hasashen buƙatun jigilar kayayyaki, kuma haka lamarin yake ga kamfanonin jigilar kayayyaki. Shahararren kamfanin tuntuɓar Drewry ya fitar da rahoto a watan Yuni cewa buƙatun jigilar kayayyaki na duniya ba zai iya ɗauka da sauri ba, kuma cewa za a iya ci gaba da dakatar da manyan ayyuka a kashi na uku na wannan shekara.
Don yin taka tsantsan, kafin al'amura su bayyana, har yanzu manyan kamfanonin jigilar kayayyaki sun zaɓi haɗa kai don jin daɗi, maimakon ƙara ƙarfin aiki daidai, amma don samun riba ta hanyar haɓaka farashi sosai. Duk da haka, su ma wadannan kamfanonin jigilar kayayyaki suna da nasu matsalolin. A gefe guda, idan farashin kaya yayi ƙasa, da yawan ku jirgi, da yawa za ku iya rasa. Dakatarwar na iya rage farashin sufuri; a wannan bangaren, an rage samar da jiragen ruwa, daidai da bangaren bukatar, da daidaita harkokin sufuri. Tasirin farashin yana hana mai jirgin ruwa daga asarar da yawa.
Gabaɗaya, baya ga farfadowar tattalin arzikin duniya da farfado da annobar, Farashin jigilar kayayyaki na kwantena yana shafar abubuwa masu yawa kamar farfadowar tattalin arzikin duniya. Kamfanonin jigilar kaya’ fahimtar iya aiki da kuma ko za su iya daidaita canje-canjen buƙatu su ma maɓalli ne. Duk da haka, matukar dai annobar ta kai wani matsayi na raguwa kuma bukatar jigilar kayayyaki ta duniya ta hauhawa da gaske, Hakanan kwarin gwiwar kamfanonin jigilar kayayyaki zai karu, kuma kudaden jigilar kayayyaki na teku za su koma farashin da ya dace a lokacin.
